Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:02:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fdb…8ffc crypto 996 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,260 (+8%) realized +$5,200 · open +$60
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%545W / 440L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$4,165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$676
7 days−$778
14 days−$104
30 days+$1,725
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$1,841
other 29% +$672
culture 7% +$712
tech 5% +$1,389
politics 3% +$233
crypto 2% −$81
economics 0% +$12
finance 0% +$18
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -38.0% -43.9% 38% 25% -15.5%
≤30d 52 +4.2% -5.7% 75% 33% -5.9%
≤90d 959 -9.3% -17.9% 55% 51% -2.6%
all 985 -9.8% -18.4% 55% 51% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 51% -2.6%
10% -26.2% 48% -11.9%
15% -33.3% 39% -20.4%
20% -39.8% 28% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$4,165
Realized+$5,200
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses545 / 440
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)985 / 996
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$70
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 985 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 19 $301 −$220 -73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $3,000 +$896 +30%
Will Elon post "Always" on X this week? Jun 16 $50 +$3 +5%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $308 −$300 -97%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 15 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $2,000 +$356 +18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $5,000 −$686 -14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 14 $750 −$527 -70%
Will Trump announce Devin Nunes as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $721 +$36 +5%
Will Trump announce Michael Ellis as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $282 +$18 +7%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $157 +$8 +5%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $4,788 +$192 +4%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $64 −$12 -18%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +116%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $1,069 +$133 +12%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 09 $302 +$43 +14%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $631 +$24 +4%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $1,220 +$51 +4%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2,920 +$144 +5%
Will the US add at least 200k jobs in May? Jun 05 $3 $0 +3%
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? Jun 05 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%? Jun 05 $201 +$13 +6%
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in May? Jun 05 $116 +$19 +17%
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in May? Jun 05 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $2 +$7 +332%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Jun 04 $1 $0 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.8M and 6.9M in April? Jun 02 $101 +$23 +22%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $301 +$24 +8%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $18 +$1 +3%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 01 $151 +$4 +3%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $305 +$201 +66%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? May 31 $104 −$4 -4%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 30 $96 −$12 -13%
Will "Iceman" - Drake 2nd week album sales be between 200k and 225k? May 30 $1,143 +$336 +29%
Will "Iceman" - Drake 2nd week album sales be between 225k and 250k? May 30 $715 +$227 +32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $4,090 +$1,451 +36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $10 −$8 -80%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 28 $3,066 +$139 +4%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 28 $232 +$7 +3%
Will Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week? May 26 $97 +$6 +6%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $3.00 (LOW) by May 31, 2026? May 25 $101 +$21 +21%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $301 +$15 +5%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world May 25 $302 +$54 +18%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $300 +$9 +3%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $301 +$12 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $4,000 −$929 -23%
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k May 22 $94 +$21 +23%
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k May 22 $7 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 26¢ $81 1h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY No 82¢ $9 3h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY No 82¢ $9 3h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY No 82¢ $9 3h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 92¢ $12 3h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 92¢ $23 3h
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 95¢ $301 3h
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $300 4h
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 91¢ $301 4h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $92 4h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $32 4h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $32 4h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 92¢ $144 4h
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $17 41h
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $239 41h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 97¢ $980 2d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 97¢ $37 2d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 97¢ $29 2d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 97¢ $29 2d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 97¢ $37 2d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 97¢ $37 2d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 97¢ $162 2d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 97¢ $366 2d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 95¢ $797 2d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $15 3d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,164.51 · official $4,164.51 (match) · 3500 history records