trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? | No | 88¢ | 84¢ | $2,214 | $2,126 | −$88 (-4%) |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $300 | $250 | −$50 (-17%) |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+19%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | Jun 13 | $339 | −$75 | -22% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 12 | $6,497 | −$127 | -2% |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Jun 05 | $300 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -12.0% | -20.4% | 0% | 0% | -12.2% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -8.0% | -16.8% | 0% | 0% | -12.1% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -8.0% | -16.8% | 0% | 0% | -12.1% |
| all | 3 | -8.0% | -16.8% | 0% | 0% | -12.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -16.8% | 0% | -12.1% |
| 10% | -24.8% | 0% | -20.5% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -32.0% | 0% | -28.2% |
| 20% | -38.7% | 0% | -35.2% |