Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fd9…177d crypto 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$135 (-5%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%169W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day103.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$262
politics 1% −$1
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 251 -7.8% -16.6% 67% 33% -18.5%
≤30d 251 -7.8% -16.6% 67% 33% -18.5%
≤90d 251 -7.8% -16.6% 67% 33% -18.5%
all 251 -7.8% -16.6% 67% 33% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 33% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 21% -26.3%
15% -31.9% 10% -33.4%
20% -38.5% 6% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses169 / 82
Open positions0
Markets (closed)251 / 251
History coverage7d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day103.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 251 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $130 −$92 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $77 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $35 −$19 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$3 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $53 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $77 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $110 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $55 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 870 history records