Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:59:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fd7…45fd crypto 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$423 (-16%) realized −$407 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%39W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$26
14 days−$25
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$150
crypto 27% −$187
sports 9% +$100
world 6% −$159
finance 5% −$16
politics 4% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -13.0% -21.3% 47% 47% -3.3%
≤30d 59 -11.2% -19.6% 51% 51% -12.1%
≤90d 75 -13.8% -22.0% 48% 48% -14.5%
all 102 -31.2% -37.8% 38% 38% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 38% -25.0%
10% -43.7% 34% -32.1%
15% -49.2% 25% -38.7%
20% -54.1% 19% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized−$407
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses39 / 63
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)102 / 115
History coverage162d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 73¢ 73¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $20 $36 +$16 (+79%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Yes 36¢ 11¢ $30 $9 −$21 (-69%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$30 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$10 -64%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -95%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $25 +$11 +45%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekista Jun 23 $25 +$10 +40%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +79%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score AND Portugal vs. Uzbekist Jun 23 $15 +$15 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +55%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams Jun 23 $10 +$16 +162%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$7 +70%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $50 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $49 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$18 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$23 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$18 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$18 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 1h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 55¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 73¢ $50 1h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 36h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? BUY Yes 48¢ $26 3d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.31 · official $293.90 · 222 history records