Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fd6…d7ba sports 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,874 (-14%) realized −$6,963 · open +$89
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%27W / 49L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$598per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$1,041est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,467now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$699
7 days+$930
14 days+$930
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$5,289
other 5% −$443
crypto 4% −$1,199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +2.5% -7.3% 47% 47% +21.8%
≤30d 19 -13.7% -21.9% 42% 37% -9.2%
≤90d 76 -14.0% -22.2% 36% 33% -22.9%
all 76 -14.0% -22.2% 36% 33% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 33% -22.9%
10% -29.7% 33% -30.3%
15% -36.5% 32% -37.0%
20% -42.7% 29% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$812) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$602 vs −$475 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$1,467
Realized−$6,963
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses27 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$1,041
Open positions6
Markets (closed)76 / 82
History coverage74d
Avg bet$598
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 58¢ 66¢ $778 $886 +$108 (+14%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 39¢ 64¢ $100 $165 +$65 (+65%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 51¢ 78¢ $100 $153 +$53 (+53%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 38¢ $200 $137 −$62 (-31%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 51¢ 34¢ $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 43¢ 24¢ $100 $57 −$43 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 −$99 -49%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $101 +$38 +38%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 −$8 -8%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $304 −$125 -41%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $101 +$58 +57%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$67 +66%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 −$98 -96%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $101 −$90 -89%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $204 +$386 +189%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 Jun 19 $203 +$186 +92%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $699 +$584 +84%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $254 +$241 +95%
Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 3.5 May 31 $257 −$250 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $102 −$100 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $997 +$18 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $584 −$584 -100%
Spread: Sunderland AFC (-1.5) May 09 $388 −$381 -98%
RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5 May 09 $764 −$750 -98%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5 May 09 $510 −$500 -98%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5 May 09 $507 −$500 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5 May 09 $36 +$83 +230%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 06 $428 −$417 -98%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5 May 03 $511 −$500 -98%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5 May 03 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5 May 02 $507 +$439 +87%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5 May 02 $527 +$380 +72%
Como 1907 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5 May 02 $589 −$585 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5 May 02 $1,058 +$1,000 +94%
Valencia CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 02 $1,634 −$725 -44%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 02 $611 −$600 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5 May 02 $812 +$772 +95%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $1,015 +$785 +77%
Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5) May 02 $97 −$94 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 01 $3,047 −$3,000 -98%
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 May 01 $1,536 +$1,631 +106%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 224.5 Apr 29 $1,952 −$1,952 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 108.5 Apr 29 $506 −$506 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 27? Apr 27 $2,008 −$1,173 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Goyang vs. LG Sakers Apr 27 $2,445 +$1,444 +59%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Gam Apr 27 $408 −$296 -73%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) Apr 27 $638 +$471 +74%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Gam Apr 27 $560 +$1,172 +209%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. Pisa SC: O/U 1.5 Apr 27 $500 −$500 -100%
Oilers vs. Ducks Apr 27 $600 +$474 +79%
Valencia CF vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $1,002 −$434 -43%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 219.5 Apr 25 $1,211 −$1,211 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $104 10m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 26¢ $104 10m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $140 19m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 92¢ $139 20m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $544 20m
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 53¢ $94 47m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 55m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $203 56m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 31¢ $180 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $159 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $168 1h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) SELL Milwaukee Brewers $4 2h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Milwaukee Brewers $11 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $101 2h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 39¢ $102 2h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $101 3h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 43¢ $102 3h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 3h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 3h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 56¢ $85 4h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ $16 4h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 51¢ $101 4h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 60¢ $101 4h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 62¢ $101 4h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 4h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ $102 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $203 9h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 51¢ $203 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 34¢ $204 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,466.87 · official $1,469.57 (match) · 470 history records