Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:14:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2fd4…9b85
other · 66 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$20 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$19 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses51 / 12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)63 / 66
History coverage725d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 3 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 89¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -45%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 14 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 May 12 $21 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 5? May 12 $26 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Feb 04 $16 $0 +0%
US bank failure by January 31? Feb 04 $2 +$23 +1150%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m Feb 04 $33 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's trap video get between 60 and 65 million views on week Jan 02 $21 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Jan 02 $26 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8? Oct 28 $9 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Oct 28 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Solana reach $250 in August? Oct 28 $8 $0 +4%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July? Aug 06 $36 −$36 -100%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran before August? Aug 03 $9 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Aug 03 $13 $0 +2%
Israel x Iran ceasefire by Friday? Aug 03 $14 $0 +3%
Will Lee Nak-yon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will there not be a new Pope in 2025? Jun 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump cut Ukraine off from Starlink? May 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14? May 05 $31 $0 +1%
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? May 05 $33 $0 +1%
Boeing at fault for South Korea plane crash? Mar 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Mar 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will the SPD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Mar 05 $33 $0 -0%
Bank of England rate cut in March meeting? Feb 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $1b and $1.5b on Feb 21 Feb 26 $2 $0 +0%
Solana above $200 on February 21? Feb 26 $3 $0 +1%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Feb 26 $47 +$41 +88%
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? Feb 20 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 24-31? Feb 20 $15 $0 +3%
Yuga Labs announce the sale of CryptoPunks in January? Feb 20 $32 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $4,730 −$5 -0%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 29 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $4,712 −$5 -0%
Will Laura Loomer get her bluecheck back by Friday? Jan 29 $14 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 29 $4,707 −$5 -0%
Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024? Jan 03 $11 $0 +0%
Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2024? Jan 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $15k in 2024? Jan 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Dec 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will Kamala win New York by 10+ points? Dec 07 $6 $0 +1%
US bank failure before December? Dec 07 $22 $0 +1%
Solana above $200 on November 15? Nov 27 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum above $3,000 on November 15? Nov 27 $5 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? Nov 27 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Treasury Secretary? Nov 27 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31? Nov 15 $33 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 34% +$23
sports 31% +$1
economics 31% −$5
politics 2% −$2
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 89¢ $9 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $12 1h
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $23 1h
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 32d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $23 32d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 5? BUY No 99¢ $26 130d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $21 130d
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 130d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m BUY No 99¢ $33 162d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY No 100¢ $16 162d
US bank failure by January 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 162d
Will MrBeast's trap video get between 60 and 65 million views on week BUY Yes 99¢ $21 211d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? BUY No 99¢ $26 211d
Will Solana reach $250 in August? BUY No 96¢ $8 311d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? BUY No 96¢ $15 311d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July? BUY Yes 31¢ $36 311d
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8? BUY No 99¢ $9 315d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 315d
Israel x Iran ceasefire by Friday? BUY No 97¢ $14 363d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran before August? BUY No 97¢ $9 363d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? BUY No 98¢ $13 363d
Will there not be a new Pope in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $23 405d
Will Lee Nak-yon be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 100¢ $22 405d
Will Trump cut Ukraine off from Starlink? BUY No 100¢ $24 459d
Boeing at fault for South Korea plane crash? SELL No 99¢ $6 459d
Boeing at fault for South Korea plane crash? BUY No 99¢ $6 463d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -10.0% -18.6% 75% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 4 -10.0% -18.6% 75% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 6 -6.5% -15.4% 83% 0% -10.3%
all 63 +16.8% +5.7% 81% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 3% -9.4%
10% -4.5% 3% -18.1%
15% -13.7% 3% -26.0%
20% -22.2% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.84 · official $22.84 (match) · 127 history records