Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:31:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2F 0x2fd2…d624 politics 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$40 (+31%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% +$27
other 28% +$19
world 11% −$5
sports 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +30.2% +17.8% 100% 100% +17.8%
≤30d 2 +42.0% +28.5% 100% 100% +26.3%
≤90d 7 +1.6% -8.1% 57% 57% +21.2%
all 16 +19.6% +8.2% 69% 62% +19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 62% +19.8%
10% -2.2% 56% +8.4%
15% -11.6% 44% -2.1%
20% -20.3% 38% -11.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.57 per $1 lost it wins $3.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage166d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $30 +$9 +30%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 29 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Mar 30 $8 +$13 +158%
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Mar 30 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24? Mar 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -83%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $5 +$1 +18%
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)? Jan 31 $2 +$2 +100%
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026? Jan 29 $10 +$13 +131%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $5 +$2 +33%
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist P Jan 23 $10 +$1 +9%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 21 $8 +$4 +45%
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presid Jan 19 $3 +$2 +81%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 16 $15 −$5 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 20d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 80d
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? SELL Yes 96¢ $21 80d
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 134d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-31? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 138d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-31? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 138d
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? BUY No 61¢ $2 138d
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? BUY No 59¢ $2 138d
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 138d
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 139d
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $23 140d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 141d
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL No 24¢ $2 141d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 24¢ $2 144d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 145d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan SELL Japan 100¢ $7 145d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan BUY Japan 75¢ $5 145d
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 146d
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 148d
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist P BUY Yes 92¢ $10 148d
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $12 148d
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 151d
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presid SELL Yes 100¢ $5 151d
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presid BUY Yes 55¢ $3 152d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 153d
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 155d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 155d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 160d
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $10 166d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records