Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:33:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2fd2…5997
other · 1015 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$232 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$200 · open −$32
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$162
Realized−$200
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses807 / 185
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions23
Markets (closed)992 / 1015
History coverage178d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 23 History 992 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$8
14 days+$9
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Duckens Nazon: 1+ goals No 87¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 91¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Endrick be in Brazil's Starting 11? No 93¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Lucas Paqueta be in Brazil's Starting 11? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 97¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Luiz Henrique be in Brazil's Starting 11? No 96¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Connor Metcalfe: 1+ goals No 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Jackson Irvine: 1+ goals No 95¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Germany to win the second half? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Australia to win the second half? No 87¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 85¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 95¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Haiti to win the second half? No 86¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Igor Thiago be in Brazil's Starting 11? No 91¢ 21¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Will Alex Sandro be in Brazil's Starting 11? Yes 95¢ $10 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will Douglas Santos be in Brazil's Starting 11? No 96¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Qatar to win the second half? No 94¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Akram Afif: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Manuel Akanji: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will "Biology" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Antonee Robinson: 1+ assists Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Gustavo Velázquez: 1+ assists Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Future perform "712PM" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Future perform "Real Sisters" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will Future perform "Like That" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will Future perform "Same Damn Time" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Antonio Sanabria: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 +$2 +17%
Edin Džeko: 1+ assists Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Amar Dedić: 1+ assists Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Ismaël Koné: 1+ goals Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Kim Jingyu: 1+ goals Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Lee Kangin: 1+ goals Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Adobe Q2 total ARR be above $28.0B? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will Oracle Q4 Remaining Performance Obligations be above $500B? Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will Oracle Q4 Cloud revenue be above $9.75B? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +7%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Core CPI YoY be 3.1% in May? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J Jun 09 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Apple announce an Apple Smart Home Display during the WWDC 2026 k Jun 09 $8 $0 +4%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Apple announce a standalone Siri app during the WWDC 2026 keynote Jun 08 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 6? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 +4%
Will Encore Medical’s market cap be greater than $55M at market close Jun 01 $5 $0 +3%
Will ICEMAN debut No.1 on Billboard 200? May 27 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Alexis Tipton as Reze (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc) win Be May 23 $50 +$4 +8%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? May 22 $27 +$1 +5%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 21 $50 +$7 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $50 +$2 +5%
Will Situational Awareness add Qualcomm to its March 31, 2026 13F? May 18 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? May 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,150 on May 16? May 17 $50 +$3 +7%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be 150 points or greater? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bulgaria come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Will France come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% −$146
politics 18% −$67
weather 17% +$8
world 8% −$23
crypto 5% +$66
tech 5% −$72
culture 3% +$41
economics 1% −$52
finance 1% +$8
sports 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Australia to win the second half? BUY No 87¢ $1 45m
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 52m
Will Douglas Santos be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Connor Metcalfe: 1+ goals BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will Luiz Henrique be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will Lucas Paqueta be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 2h
Duckens Nazon: 1+ goals BUY No 87¢ $10 2h
Will Igor Thiago be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY No 91¢ $5 2h
Will Igor Thiago be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY No 91¢ $5 2h
Will Alex Sandro be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 2h
Australia to win the second half? BUY No 87¢ $4 2h
Will Endrick be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY No 93¢ $10 2h
Jackson Irvine: 1+ goals BUY No 95¢ $10 3h
Australia to win the second half? BUY No 87¢ $4 3h
Haiti to win the second half? BUY No 86¢ $4 3h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY No 98¢ $10 23h
Will Future perform "Real Sisters" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? BUY No 97¢ $10 24h
Will Future perform "Same Damn Time" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? BUY No 97¢ $10 24h
Will Future perform "Like That" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? BUY No 97¢ $10 24h
Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists BUY No 95¢ $10 25h
Manuel Akanji: 1+ goals BUY No 97¢ $10 25h
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY No 97¢ $10 25h
Will "Biology" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY No 97¢ $10 25h
Will Future perform "712PM" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? BUY No 95¢ $10 25h
Qatar to win the second half? BUY No 94¢ $10 25h
Akram Afif: 1+ goals BUY No 93¢ $10 26h
Antonio Sanabria: 1+ goals BUY No 85¢ $10 26h
Antonee Robinson: 1+ assists BUY No 91¢ $10 26h
Gustavo Velázquez: 1+ assists BUY No 94¢ $10 26h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists BUY No 94¢ $10 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +2.6% -7.2% 97% 9% -7.2%
≤30d 66 -2.3% -11.6% 92% 8% -11.2%
≤90d 508 +0.9% -8.7% 93% 21% -9.1%
all 992 -2.4% -11.7% 81% 17% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 17% -10.5%
10% -20.1% 1% -19.1%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.9% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.52 · official $161.52 (match) · 2262 history records