Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:15:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2fcd…e3d7 other 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 341d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,194 (-5%) realized −$1,194 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%37W / 48L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$170est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$538
7 days+$1,476
14 days−$108
30 days−$980
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$635
other 38% −$1,533
crypto 15% +$776
politics 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +37.3% +24.2% 64% 64% +7.8%
≤30d 79 +4.6% -5.4% 43% 43% -13.4%
≤90d 79 +4.6% -5.4% 43% 43% -13.4%
all 85 +2.9% -6.9% 44% 40% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 40% -14.5%
10% -15.8% 40% -22.7%
15% -23.9% 40% -30.2%
20% -31.4% 39% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -23% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$255 vs −$225 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

341d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,194
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses37 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$170
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 88
History coverage341d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $354 −$354 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $27 +$136 +510%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,009 +$761 +75%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $103 −$97 -94%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $112 +$92 +83%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $297 +$215 +72%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $203 −$200 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $49 +$53 +109%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $89 +$60 +67%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $84 +$104 +124%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $203 +$182 +90%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $116 +$85 +73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $189 +$128 +67%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $200 +$83 +42%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $78 +$105 +134%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $163 +$115 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $314 +$539 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $1,958 +$1,474 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $829 −$800 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $519 −$500 -96%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $302 −$299 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 −$198 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $175 −$174 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $108 +$67 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $74 +$134 +180%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 +$91 +90%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $107 +$184 +172%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $403 +$441 +109%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $165 −$163 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $300 +$268 +89%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $272 −$268 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $73 −$72 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $132 +$140 +106%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $111 −$78 -70%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $14 +$26 +180%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,479 +$2,066 +140%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,429 −$1,404 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,232 −$44 -4%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,487 −$117 -8%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $27 −$26 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1,115 −$1,100 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $100 −$52 -52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $797 +$400 +50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $634 −$634 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 16¢ $27 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 91¢ $1,770 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $1,009 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $354 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) AND Will J BUY 15¢ $48 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 46¢ $110 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $103 28h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $112 30h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $258 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $27 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $203 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $101 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $49 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $89 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 44¢ $84 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $203 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $116 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $189 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $200 5d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $78 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $163 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $287 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $74 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $959 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $408 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 191 history records