Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fcd…9293 sports 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,082 (-20%) realized −$1,047 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%14W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days−$465
14 days−$465
30 days−$465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$541
sports 32% −$256
crypto 11% −$169
politics 4% −$206
culture 2% −$15
world 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -30.0% -36.6% 14% 14% -43.6%
≤30d 22 -30.0% -36.6% 14% 14% -43.6%
≤90d 22 -30.0% -36.6% 14% 14% -43.6%
all 53 -11.9% -20.3% 26% 26% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 26% -30.2%
10% -27.9% 23% -36.8%
15% -34.9% 13% -42.9%
20% -41.3% 13% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$59 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$1,047
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses14 / 39
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 57
History coverage215d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Under 57¢ 62¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+8%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Norway 35¢ 24¢ $40 $27 −$13 (-33%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Over 20¢ 10¢ $50 $24 −$26 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$9 -46%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $31 −$18 -58%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$9 -18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $54 −$36 -67%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$24 +115%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $82 −$75 -91%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $302 −$302 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $41 −$5 -12%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$3 -8%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $51 −$32 -64%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 +$127 +414%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by November 30? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 +$283 +277%
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025? Nov 19 $69 +$24 +35%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 30? Nov 19 $117 −$17 -15%
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30? Nov 19 $105 −$105 -100%
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025? Nov 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Solana dip to $130 in November? Nov 18 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 18 $125 −$15 -12%
Will Qatar vs. Zimbabwe end in a draw? Nov 18 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2025-11-17? Nov 17 $200 −$191 -95%
Will Chad win on 2025-11-17? Nov 17 $200 −$192 -96%
Will Mozambique win on 2025-11-17? Nov 17 $200 −$132 -66%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 17? Nov 17 $240 −$100 -42%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on November 16? Nov 17 $256 +$44 +17%
Will Ukraine vs. Iceland end in a draw? Nov 16 $150 +$84 +56%
Will Albania vs. England end in a draw? Nov 16 $30 +$38 +125%
Will France win on 2025-11-16? Nov 16 $255 +$68 +27%
Will Hungary vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? Nov 16 $38 +$98 +258%
Will Portugal win on 2025-11-16? Nov 16 $30 −$28 -94%
Will Hungary win on 2025-11-16? Nov 16 $200 −$4 -2%
Will Wales win on 2025-11-15? Nov 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Greece win on 2025-11-15? Nov 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Liechtenstein vs. Wales end in a draw? Nov 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-11-14? Nov 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2025-11-15? Nov 16 $10 +$101 +1011%
Will Bulgaria win on 2025-11-15? Nov 15 $10 −$7 -73%
Will Spain win on 2025-11-15? Nov 15 $200 +$28 +14%
Will Croatia vs. Faroe Islands end in a draw? Nov 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Finland win on 2025-11-14? Nov 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-14? Nov 15 $200 +$60 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $51 48m
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $61 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $41 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $11 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 9¢ $13 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 34¢ $42 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $20 3h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 20¢ $31 3h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $51 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $16 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 7¢ $18 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $12 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $13 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $3 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $2 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $8 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 25¢ $41 30h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $20 45h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 45h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 75¢ $44 45h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 17¢ $20 46h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 73¢ $302 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 2¢ $7 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 17¢ $41 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL 0¢ $0 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 31¢ $41 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 22¢ $36 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $38 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 24¢ $41 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.34 · official $116.58 · 168 history records