Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:55:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fcc…e74c sports 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,992 (+9%) realized +$1,985 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%18W / 53L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,829now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4,828
30 days+$5,050
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$4,235
other 33% −$2,445
world 27% −$18
economics 2% +$160
crypto 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +123.4% +102.1% 80% 80% +60.7%
≤90d 47 -39.0% -44.8% 23% 21% -11.1%
all 71 -37.4% -43.4% 25% 21% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.4% 21% -0.2%
10% -48.8% 17% -9.8%
15% -53.8% 15% -18.5%
20% -58.3% 13% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -55% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$466 vs −$122 · ×3.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$1,829
Realized+$1,985
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses18 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions16
Markets (closed)71 / 88
History coverage174d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals No 76¢ 86¢ $303 $344 +$41 (+13%)
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes 24¢ 34¢ $190 $261 +$71 (+37%)
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $195 $202 +$8 (+4%)
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title? Yes 54¢ 42¢ $231 $178 −$53 (-23%)
Will Travis Bazzana win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $245 $178 −$67 (-27%)
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award? Yes 42¢ 52¢ $127 $156 +$29 (+23%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $102 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will Texas Rangers win the 2026 AL West title? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $103 $101 −$2 (-2%)
Will Texas Rangers win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $92 $100 +$8 (+8%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $63 $79 +$16 (+25%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $24 $40 +$16 (+64%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $54 $38 −$16 (-31%)
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $51 $31 −$20 (-40%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-10%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $4 −$19 (-83%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots Yes 69¢ 34¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $5,273 +$4,737 +90%
Will Jackson Blake win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $839 +$91 +11%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $53 +$245 +466%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $58 +$42 +73%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 31 $286 −$65 -23%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $39 +$12 +32%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $12 +$58 +469%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $29 −$28 -97%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $106 −$103 -97%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $110 −$108 -98%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $144 −$140 -98%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 07 $3,778 −$1,689 -45%
Will Antoine Griezmann record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Cha May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) May 06 $344 +$142 +41%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 01 $24 −$24 -97%
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Tr Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Tro Apr 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Atlantic Division? Apr 26 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Arda Güler record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champions Apr 26 $176 +$24 +14%
Will Wyatt Johnston win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Tro Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the Pacific Division? Apr 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Jamal Murray win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? Apr 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division? Apr 26 $195 −$195 -100%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Atlantic Division? Apr 26 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) score the most goals in 2025-26 UEFA Ch Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the Eastern Conference? Apr 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $106 −$34 -32%
Will the Boston Bruins win the Atlantic Division? Apr 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $19 $0 -1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $49 +$41 +83%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $501 +$13 +2%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Apr 09 $10 +$18 +186%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $245 −$245 -100%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Grand Canyon Antelopes vs. Utah State Aggies Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Slovakia win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter O Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division? Apr 01 $19 −$19 -100%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Apr 01 $195 −$195 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 01 $1,152 −$1,152 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1,260 −$1,260 -100%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 01 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 01 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Joel Quenneville win the 2025–2026 NHL Jack Adams Award? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 17 $169 −$169 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 77¢ $60 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $34 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $3 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $38 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 77¢ $8 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $29 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots BUY No 35¢ $175 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots SELL Yes 60¢ $96 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $132 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots BUY Yes 70¢ $167 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots BUY Yes 70¢ $146 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots BUY Yes 68¢ $149 2h
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award? BUY Yes 42¢ $129 6d
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title? BUY Yes 49¢ $134 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-1 BUY 11¢ $10 15d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 15d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $4,908 15d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $222 16d
Will Jackson Blake win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY No 90¢ $298 16d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $298 16d
Will Jackson Blake win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY No 90¢ $541 16d
Will Travis Bazzana win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 8¢ $252 21d
Will Texas Rangers win the 2026 AL West title? BUY Yes 19¢ $106 21d
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title? BUY Yes 62¢ $100 21d
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Ser BUY Yes 39¢ $199 21d
Will Texas Rangers win the 2026 American League Championship Series? BUY Yes 6¢ $95 21d
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series BUY Yes 24¢ $194 21d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $18 32d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $25 32d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $23 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,828.92 · official $1,828.92 (match) · 513 history records