Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:28:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2fc8…06ea crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 549d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%41W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$10
crypto 12% +$2
politics 5% −$1
other 4% $0
tech 3% +$1
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 53 +0.2% -9.3% 77% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

549d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses41 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage549d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $64 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? Apr 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? Mar 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in December? Jan 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? Dec 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? Dec 03 $69 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $48 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 04 $63 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $71 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 03 $30 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 02 $35 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? May 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? May 04 $8 $0 +2%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $13 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 04 $14 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 04 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 20 $68 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 20 $71 $0 -0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian el Apr 15 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Apr 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $5,116 −$10 -0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 06 $12 $0 +4%
Will Solana hit $250 by February 28 2025? Mar 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $440b on February 28? Mar 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 09 $16 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $100 by January 31, 2025? Feb 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Jan 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland? Jan 19 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $64 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $21 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $54 63d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $22 93d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $39 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $22 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $37 123d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $30 149d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $46 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $22 181d
Will Solana reach $210 in December? BUY No 100¢ $60 182d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? BUY No 100¢ $11 211d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $69 211d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $18 241d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $48 242d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $11 272d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? BUY No 99¢ $21 273d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? BUY No 99¢ $42 273d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $32 301d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $39 303d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $30 333d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $43 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? BUY No 99¢ $35 365d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 393d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 394d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 395d
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? BUY No 100¢ $14 423d
Will TikTok be banned again before May? BUY No 100¢ $13 424d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.64 · official $79.64 (match) · 112 history records