Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fc7…7fba sports 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$32 (+3%) realized +$45 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 113L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$247
7 days+$109
14 days+$512
30 days+$505
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$111
other 37% +$94
world 17% +$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +23.5% +11.8% 6% 6% -12.7%
≤30d 33 +85.2% +67.5% 15% 15% +64.3%
≤90d 76 +24.4% +12.5% 12% 12% +43.8%
all 128 -9.7% -18.3% 12% 11% +19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 11% +19.5%
10% -26.1% 11% +8.1%
15% -33.3% 10% -2.4%
20% -39.8% 10% -11.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +79% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +47% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$6 · ×11.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 113
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)128 / 133
History coverage201d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $100 $66 −$34 (-34%)
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+124%)
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 3 Algeria? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+21%)
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 3 Algeria? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+42%)
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 2 Algeria? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 +$323 +3136%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$6 -54%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 +$252 +490%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $21 +$107 +521%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Break Single-Game Finals Blocks Record? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $1 +$44 +4258%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $21 +$123 +599%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $4 −$3 -62%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $21 −$5 -23%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $1 −$1 -97%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $103 −$42 -40%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $5 +$12 +228%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $3 −$1 -22%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 27h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 27h
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 27h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 6d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 31¢ $304 7d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.89 · official $121.37 · 318 history records