Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:14:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2F 0x2fc5…e571 sports 196 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$108 (-3%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%75W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$270
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$189
other 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -5.5% -14.5% 41% 32% -11.7%
≤30d 193 +0.3% -9.2% 39% 36% -13.9%
≤90d 193 +0.3% -9.2% 39% 36% -13.9%
all 193 +0.3% -9.2% 39% 36% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 36% -13.9%
10% -17.9% 33% -22.1%
15% -25.9% 28% -29.6%
20% -33.1% 24% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses75 / 118
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions3
Markets (closed)193 / 196
History coverage24d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $31 −$18 -58%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $34 +$1 +4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $32 +$34 +105%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $34 −$13 -38%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $34 −$5 -15%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $32 +$25 +76%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $32 −$10 -31%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $32 −$24 -73%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $32 −$22 -67%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $65 +$19 +29%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $65 +$5 +8%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $32 −$11 -34%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 09 $32 −$18 -57%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $32 −$32 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $48 −$5 -10%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $38 −$14 -36%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $38 $0 -1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $38 +$23 +60%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $38 −$20 -52%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $38 +$19 +50%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $38 +$37 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 08 $38 +$8 +22%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $26 −$1 -3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $26 +$15 +57%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $26 +$21 +79%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $26 +$18 +70%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $26 +$17 +65%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $26 +$18 +70%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $26 −$3 -11%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $26 +$18 +70%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $51 −$34 -67%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $26 −$14 -53%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $26 −$21 -81%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $41 −$6 -15%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $40 +$12 +31%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $40 +$14 +36%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $41 −$8 -19%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $41 −$12 -29%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $24 +$13 +55%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $24 −$1 -5%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $24 −$10 -43%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $24 +$3 +12%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $24 −$4 -18%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $47 −$8 -17%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $24 +$5 +22%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $24 −$4 -18%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $24 −$7 -28%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 05 $24 −$6 -23%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 05 $24 −$4 -17%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $23 −$7 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics SELL Milwaukee Brewers 5¢ $3 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 28¢ $10 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 28¢ $10 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics SELL Milwaukee Brewers 24¢ $9 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 25¢ $10 4d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Washington Nationals 75¢ $35 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 31¢ $21 5d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 33¢ $29 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 49¢ $34 5d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 71¢ $34 5d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 38¢ $34 5d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 39¢ $22 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Chicago Cubs 17¢ $9 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Seattle Mariners 18¢ $11 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 65¢ $70 5d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL New York Yankees 37¢ $21 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 25¢ $14 5d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Boston Red Sox 27¢ $16 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 60¢ $32 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $32 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $32 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 55¢ $32 5d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ $32 5d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $32 5d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 47¢ $33 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 48¢ $32 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 56¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.75 · official $29.75 (match) · 428 history records