Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:10:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

2F 0x2fc3…b676 sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$7,884 (+48%) realized +$7,786 · open +$98

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate42%10W / 14L

Whale WR50%big bets

Drawdown24%max

Avg bet$553per market

Trades / day9.1pace

Fees−$273est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$1,043now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)+2.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	+12.8%	+2.0%	42%	42%	+37.8%
≤30d	24	+12.8%	+2.0%	42%	42%	+37.8%
≤90d	24	+12.8%	+2.0%	42%	42%	+37.8%
all	24	+12.8%	+2.0%	42%	42%	+37.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.1 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+2.0%	42%	+37.8%
10% ← realistic here	-7.7%	42%	+24.6%
15%	-16.7%	42%	+12.6%
20%	-24.8%	42%	+1.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +13% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 50% (≥$900) neutral

Persistence

early +22% → late +4% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,372 vs −$424 · ×3.24 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$1,043

Realized+$7,786

Unrealized+$98

Win rate (resolved)42%

Wins / losses10 / 14

Whale WR (big bets)50%

Est. fees paid−$273

Open positions2

Markets (closed)24 / 30

History coverage4d

Avg bet$553

Trades / day9.1

Drawdown24%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	39¢	48¢	$795	$988	+$194 (+24%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?	Yes	29¢	10¢	$150	$54	−$96 (-64%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$840	+$1,145	+136%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$689	+$2,440	+354%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$154	−$150	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-94%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$204	+$129	+63%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$256	−$250	-98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$205	+$202	+98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$204	−$200	-98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$307	−$300	-98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$204	−$200	-98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$219	−$214	-98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$1,015	+$944	+93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$1,162	−$1,142	-98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$714	+$1,475	+207%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$57	−$2	-4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$1,021	−$1,000	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$870	+$3,380	+388%
O/U 2.5 Rounds	Jun 15	$1,525	+$1,822	+120%
O/U 1.5 Rounds	Jun 15	$2,027	+$1,609	+79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$581	−$570	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 14	$914	−$900	-98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$810	+$576	+71%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$407	−$400	-98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$609	−$600	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	39¢	$809	1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-H	BUY	17¢	$154	7h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	42¢	$840	12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN	BUY	18¢	$153	21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$148	21h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$154	21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$156	21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	21¢	$689	24h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?	BUY Yes	29¢	$157	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	33h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	52¢	$333	34h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	31¢	$204	35h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	26¢	$256	37h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	SELL Yes	25¢	$407	37h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	12¢	$205	37h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	29¢	$204	37h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	26¢	$307	37h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	37¢	$204	38h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	17¢	$219	43h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U	BUY	23¢	$261	44h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	99¢	$1,959	44h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	51¢	$1,015	2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	43¢	$1,162	2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will B	BUY	7¢	$62	2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$55	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	32¢	$714	3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Over	29¢	$1,021	3d
O/U 2.5 Rounds	BUY Over	45¢	$1,525	3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	20¢	$870	3d
O/U 1.5 Rounds	BUY Over	55¢	$2,027	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,042.72 · official $1,304.80 · 47 history records