Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:44:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fc2…ac3c crypto 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+3%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$18
other 40% +$14
sports 3% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -30.5% -37.1% 38% 34% -14.6%
≤30d 31 -27.9% -34.7% 39% 35% -13.9%
≤90d 31 -27.9% -34.7% 39% 35% -13.9%
all 31 -27.9% -34.7% 39% 35% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 35% -13.9%
10% -41.0% 29% -22.1%
15% -46.7% 23% -29.6%
20% -51.9% 16% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage7d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $58 +$54 +94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$15 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 41¢ $32 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $30 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 7¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 7¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records