Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:54:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fc0…7c96 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$74 (-4%) realized −$35 · open −$39
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%4W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$584
sports 41% +$535
crypto 3% −$44
world 1% −$25
weather 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -24.2% -31.4% 18% 18% -16.3%
≤30d 22 -24.2% -31.4% 18% 18% -16.3%
≤90d 22 -24.2% -31.4% 18% 18% -16.3%
all 22 -24.2% -31.4% 18% 18% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.4% 18% -16.3%
10% -38.0% 18% -24.3%
15% -43.9% 18% -31.6%
20% -49.4% 18% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$44 · ×4.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses4 / 18
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 29
History coverage4d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? Yes $50 $12 −$38 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $92 −$16 -17%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $77 +$223 +291%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $41 −$2 -6%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $58 −$57 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $45 −$44 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $82 +$359 +438%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 +$101 +198%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 14 $35 +$28 +78%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $51 −$44 -86%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $55 −$54 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 −$9 -29%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 25¢ $166 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? AND Will Ghana win on 2026- BUY $103 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Exact Sco BUY $57 17h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? AND England vs. Croatia: Draw at h BUY $57 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Argentina leading at BUY $41 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 14¢ $77 24h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $39 28h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $92 29h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $58 29h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 25¢ $77 37h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes $103 37h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes $14 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes $31 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes $26 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes $77 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $103 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $82 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 92¢ $152 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes $10 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 30¢ $51 3d
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 28¢ $36 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Total Corners Odd or Even? SELL Odd 99¢ $63 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes $31 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes $7 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 55¢ $35 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.83 · official $170.83 · 40 history records