Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:27:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fbe…80f3 crypto 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$205 (-17%) realized −$249 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$311
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -25.6% -32.7% 35% 32% -39.0%
≤30d 40 -25.6% -32.7% 35% 32% -39.0%
≤90d 40 -25.6% -32.7% 35% 32% -39.0%
all 40 -25.6% -32.7% 35% 32% -39.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 32% -39.0%
10% -39.1% 28% -44.8%
15% -45.0% 28% -50.2%
20% -50.4% 28% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$27 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$249
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage6d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 29¢ 80¢ $25 $69 +$44 (+174%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$38 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET Jun 20 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $57 −$54 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $45 −$44 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$56 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$18 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$25 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $46 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$52 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $78 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$34 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$21 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $46 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $35 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.53 · official $68.53 (match) · 81 history records