Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fbc…67cb world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$6
other 14% +$1
crypto 9% +$2
politics 6% +$5
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 +1.3% -8.4% 33% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 12 +1.3% -8.4% 33% 0% -8.3%
all 30 -4.6% -13.7% 53% 7% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 7% -7.5%
10% -21.9% 3% -16.4%
15% -29.5% 3% -24.4%
20% -36.4% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.26 per $1 lost it wins $3.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage476d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $48 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $76 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $14 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $33 +$3 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $31 +$3 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 01 $6 $0 -1%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 31 $22 $0 +0%
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April? Mar 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25? Mar 27 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $1 $0 -19%
Another crypto hack over $1b before April? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Department of Education be most efficient on March 31? Mar 24 $8 −$1 -11%
Will 'Magazine Dreams' gross between 1-2m on opening weekend? Mar 24 $21 +$1 +4%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Mar 23 $20 +$1 +3%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Mar 19 $13 +$6 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $39 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $39 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $10 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $38 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $40 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $32 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $34 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $3 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $36 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $40 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $39 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $5 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $8 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $16 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $16 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records