Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2F 0x2fbc…b5c9 crypto 1570 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,677 (-7%) realized −$2,676 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate73%1173W / 435L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day94.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$261
7 days−$220
14 days−$537
30 days−$1,962
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,446
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -37.5% -43.4% 47% 34% -13.1%
≤30d 1608 -8.0% -16.7% 73% 59% -14.4%
≤90d 1608 -8.0% -16.7% 73% 59% -14.4%
all 1608 -8.0% -16.7% 73% 59% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 59% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 37% -22.6%
15% -32.0% 17% -30.0%
20% -38.6% 6% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$20 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$2,676
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses1173 / 435
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1608 / 1570
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day94.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1608 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Up 89¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win more than 82.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? U 82.5 9¢ 6¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 423 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $35 +$18 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $75 −$70 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $116 +$37 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $22 +$9 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $145 −$19 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $112 +$23 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $167 +$55 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $22 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $87 +$36 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $23 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $9 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $7 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $17 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $9 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $9 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $0 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $8 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.55 · official $8.55 (match) · 3500 history records