Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

2F 0x2fbb…aea9 sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$2,042 (-22%) realized −$2,026 · open −$16

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip

Net edge-44%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate41%11W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$234per market

Trades / day60.6pace

Fees−$101est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$2,377now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-34.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	-27.7%	-34.6%	41%	41%	-37.7%
≤30d	27	-27.7%	-34.6%	41%	41%	-37.7%
≤90d	27	-27.7%	-34.6%	41%	41%	-37.7%
all	27	-27.7%	-34.6%	41%	41%	-37.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover60.6 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-34.6%	41%	-37.7%
10% ← realistic here	-40.9%	41%	-43.7%
15%	-46.6%	33%	-49.1%
20%	-51.8%	26%	-54.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -28% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -16% → late -39% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$142 vs −$227 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.43 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$2,377

Realized−$2,026

Unrealized−$16

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses11 / 16

Est. fees paid−$101

Open positions12

Markets (closed)27 / 39

History coverage2d

Avg bet$234

Trades / day60.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 12 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Under	57¢	56¢	$571	$571	−$1 (-0%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Under	55¢	55¢	$550	$545	−$5 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Under	44¢	44¢	$448	$442	−$5 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime?	Yes	46¢	46¢	$234	$231	−$3 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime?	Yes	42¢	42¢	$214	$216	+$3 (+1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime?	Yes	36¢	36¢	$180	$182	+$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$40	$38	−$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$36	$35	−$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$31	$32	+$1 (+4%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$33	$32	−$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$31	$28	−$3 (-8%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$26	$24	−$1 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	Jun 29	$87	+$117	+134%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada?	Jun 28	$40	−$40	-100%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada?	Jun 28	$8	−$8	-98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 28	$40	+$10	+25%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5	Jun 28	$204	+$105	+51%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	Jun 28	$134	+$70	+52%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$76	−$14	-18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$69	−$48	-70%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5	Jun 28	$163	+$82	+50%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	Jun 28	$28	−$28	-100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal?	Jun 28	$31	−$31	-100%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Portugal?	Jun 28	$22	−$22	-100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal?	Jun 28	$19	−$19	-100%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 3 Portugal?	Jun 28	$14	−$14	-100%
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 28	$47	−$47	-100%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Jun 28	$72	+$184	+256%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$1,013	+$278	+27%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 28	$124	+$50	+40%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	Jun 28	$140	+$91	+65%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	Jun 28	$304	−$299	-98%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 28	$60	−$60	-100%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 27	$50	+$23	+46%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)	Jun 27	$1,002	−$989	-99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$1,450	−$1,424	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$897	+$555	+62%
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 26	$146	−$143	-98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$450	−$450	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco?	BUY Yes	12¢	$32	1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco?	BUY Yes	10¢	$26	1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	13¢	$34	1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	6¢	$32	1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan?	BUY Yes	14¢	$37	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	42¢	$217	1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	46¢	$238	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	44¢	$455	1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$455	1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$122	3h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan?	BUY Yes	8¢	$40	3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	36¢	$180	4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$4	6h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$1	6h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$387	6h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$1	6h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$24	6h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$1	6h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$131	6h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada?	BUY Yes	20¢	$40	13h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada?	BUY Yes	15¢	$8	13h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	42¢	$87	13h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	50¢	$45	13h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	50¢	$5	13h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	40¢	$40	13h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	90¢	$18	29h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	89¢	$2	29h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	89¢	$16	29h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	88¢	$18	29h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	87¢	$17	29h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,377.21 · official $2,377.31 (match) · 156 history records