Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:16:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fbb…cdcb other 248 markets active 0h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 236L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$36
sports 21% −$22
politics 8% −$6
culture 7% −$8
economics 7% −$8
world 4% −$3
crypto 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 150 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage150d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 28 $132 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 28 $122 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 27 $207 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 26 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $457 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $459 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 25 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 25 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $786 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 24 $316 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 24 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 23 $160 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $304 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 22 $213 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 21 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $402 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $659 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $551 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $61 $0 -1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 21 $152 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $413 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 19 $373 +$1 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $544 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $173 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $538 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $306 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $151 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,242 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $420 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $331 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $574 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $624 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 22m
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $61 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 6h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 7h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 11h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $61 16h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $61 18h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 29h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 31h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 32h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 33h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $61 35h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $61 36h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $61 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $62 40h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $62 42h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 43h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $62 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.39 · official $60.39 (match) · 1500 history records