Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:10:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2fb9…c9d4
weather · 229 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$890
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses199 / 11
Open positions19
Markets (closed)210 / 229
History coverage7d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day130.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 19 History 210 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 100¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $90 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 3m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 26m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 29m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 32m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 34m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 36m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 41m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 45m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 48m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 52m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 56m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 59m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 210 -3.8% -13.0% 95% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 210 -3.8% -13.0% 95% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 210 -3.8% -13.0% 95% 0% -9.6%
all 210 -3.8% -13.0% 95% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover130.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $890.14 · official $890.14 (match) · 1082 history records