Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:00:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2fb1…fb84
crypto · 190 markets active 4d ago
0.0score
−$12,131 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11,768 · open −$362
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,662
Realized−$11,768
Unrealized−$362
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses62 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)187 / 190
Avg bet$884
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 3 History 187 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $1,350 $1,125 −$225 (-17%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $300 $350 +$50 (+17%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $375 $188 −$188 (-50%)
Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $1,292 $0 −$1,292 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $117K August 4–10? No 44¢ 0¢ $155 $0 −$155 (-100%)
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? No 30¢ 0¢ $127 $0 −$127 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 07 $330 −$132 -40%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $107 +$15 +14%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? Apr 06 $147 −$44 -30%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? Apr 06 $213 −$65 -30%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 06 $406 −$7 -2%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $612 $0 +0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 01 $121 −$78 -64%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 30 $231 −$27 -12%
Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Mar 26 $50 −$29 -59%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $3,607 −$5 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 26 $152 −$45 -29%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 26 $116 −$39 -33%
Will Bitcoin reach $124k in October? Mar 25 $374 −$309 -83%
Will Bitcoin reach $118K August 4–10? Mar 25 $1,060 −$755 -71%
Will Solana reach $185 in August? Mar 25 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3800 August 4–10? Mar 25 $356 −$356 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? Mar 25 $106 −$106 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 2? Mar 25 $325 −$295 -91%
Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in September? Mar 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $122k in October? Mar 25 $356 −$356 -100%
Will 5 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs? Mar 25 $334 −$125 -38%
Men's Group B - Sweden vs. Slovakia Mar 25 $62 −$62 -100%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 25 $248 −$69 -28%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 19 $31 −$9 -29%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 19 $55 −$13 -24%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in March 2026? Mar 19 $227 +$83 +37%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Mar 18 $579 −$13 -2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 17 $1,790 −$103 -6%
US recession by end of 2026? Mar 14 $869 −$62 -7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 13? Mar 13 $788 −$215 -27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 13 $3,686 +$481 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Mar 12 $731 +$55 +8%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Mar 12 $1,731 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 12 $1,130 −$45 -4%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on March 12? Mar 12 $281 −$117 -42%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 12 $253 −$1 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 10? Mar 10 $1,294 −$531 -41%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 10 $505 −$345 -68%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 10 $554 −$264 -48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 10 $528 −$336 -64%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 06 $1,364 +$395 +29%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 2 above $300? Mar 06 $350 −$100 -29%
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? Mar 05 $245 −$83 -34%
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between Mar 05 $1,448 +$235 +16%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen Mar 05 $2,170 −$722 -33%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? Mar 05 $753 +$56 +7%
Silver (SI) Up or Down on March 4? Mar 04 $153 −$28 -18%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $2,794 −$635 -23%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 03 $5,654 +$836 +15%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 03 $4,077 +$652 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 32% −$4,135
economics 20% −$404
world 14% −$2,797
finance 13% −$1,523
politics 9% −$1,683
other 6% +$293
tech 4% −$2,240
sports 1% +$485
culture 0% −$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $315 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $394 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $1,417 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $14 65d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $122 65d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $122 65d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $107 66d
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $104 66d
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $24 67d
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $124 67d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? SELL Up 33¢ $148 67d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? BUY Up 47¢ $213 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 58¢ $215 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 60¢ $222 67d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 67d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 82¢ $180 68d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 54¢ $184 68d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $184 71d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $184 71d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $43 71d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $43 71d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $165 71d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $162 71d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $201 73d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $204 73d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $231 76d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $231 76d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $231 77d
Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League Playo SELL Winter Bear 12¢ $0 77d
Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League Playo SELL Winter Bear 11¢ $10 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 28 -43.6% -49.0% 11% 7% -32.4%
all 187 -16.5% -24.4% 33% 22% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 22% -15.9%
10% -31.7% 17% -24.0%
15% -38.3% 12% -31.3%
20% -44.3% 10% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,662.50 · official $1,662.50 (match) · 1207 history records