Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:17:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2fab…d73c
crypto · 90 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
−$41 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$627 · open −$668
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,582
Realized+$627
Unrealized−$668
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses40 / 40
Open positions10
Markets (closed)80 / 90
History coverage6d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 10 History 80 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$611
7 days+$627
14 days+$627
30 days+$627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 69¢ 57¢ $500 $413 −$87 (-17%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 56¢ 32¢ $710 $399 −$311 (-44%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 57¢ 45¢ $300 $237 −$63 (-21%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $256 $218 −$38 (-15%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $194 $170 −$24 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 32¢ 24¢ $99 $76 −$23 (-23%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-23%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $50 $21 −$29 (-58%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $21 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $83 +$221 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $316 −$16 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $316 −$13 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $171 −$171 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $172 −$172 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $168 −$168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $367 −$367 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $288 −$288 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $165 +$222 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $182 +$118 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $171 −$171 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $183 +$118 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $145 +$131 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $135 +$166 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $155 +$128 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $169 +$157 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $110 +$191 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $145 +$156 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $168 +$144 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $138 +$160 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $146 −$146 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $185 −$185 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $229 +$71 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $198 −$198 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $336 +$302 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $322 −$20 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $164 +$136 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $192 +$109 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $141 +$160 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $148 +$156 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $121 +$196 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $168 −$168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $393 +$210 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $340 +$260 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $167 −$167 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $168 +$131 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$199 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $296 +$311 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 86% +$533
world 10% −$461
economics 4% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $103 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $74 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $83 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $188 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $128 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $199 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $185 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $149 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $171 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $172 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $168 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $176 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $191 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $137 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $125 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $128 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $160 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $165 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $182 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $183 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $171 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $145 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $135 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $155 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $169 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $149 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $110 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $143 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $145 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +5.9% -4.2% 50% 50% -5.0%
≤30d 80 +5.9% -4.2% 50% 50% -5.0%
≤90d 80 +5.9% -4.2% 50% 50% -5.0%
all 80 +5.9% -4.2% 50% 50% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 50% -5.0%
10% -13.4% 49% -14.1%
15% -21.7% 48% -22.4%
20% -29.4% 48% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,582.13 · official $1,661.76 · 196 history records