Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fa9…3a5a world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$6
politics 16% +$3
other 13% +$1
crypto 12% +$1
finance 5% $0
sports 3% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 12 -1.0% -10.4% 42% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 14 -0.9% -10.3% 36% 0% -10.6%
all 37 +0.5% -9.1% 49% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -9.6%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage294d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $35 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $44 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $34 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $17 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $40 −$6 -16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 18 $44 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $15 $0 +1%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Dec 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 21 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 12 $25 $0 -0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio Sep 10 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Sep 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ap win the second most seats in the Norway election? Sep 08 $8 $0 +2%
Will JD Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during remarks in Wisconsin on Sep 05 $35 +$1 +4%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 28 $35 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 71¢ $10 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 71¢ $24 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 72¢ $35 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $4 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $16 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $8 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $7 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $5 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $23 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $7 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $37 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $37 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $18 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $17 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $15 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $19 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $40 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $6 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $38 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $44 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $23 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $20 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records