Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2F 0x2fa9…5f77 crypto 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$4,868 (+30%) realized +$4,573 · open +$295
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%43W / 33L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$108
7 days−$196
14 days+$168
30 days+$2,256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$2,665
finance 23% +$1,509
sports 2% −$153
world 1% +$112
other 1% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -39.0% -44.8% 33% 33% -37.8%
≤30d 44 +13.3% +2.5% 59% 59% +16.2%
≤90d 74 +12.1% +1.5% 57% 57% +19.1%
all 76 +11.7% +1.0% 57% 57% +14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 57% +14.7%
10% -8.6% 57% +3.7%
15% -17.5% 49% -6.3%
20% -25.5% 41% -15.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$88 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$1,236
Realized+$4,573
Unrealized+$295
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses43 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)76 / 79
History coverage110d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 64¢ 99¢ $435 $668 +$233 (+53%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? No 71¢ 86¢ $306 $372 +$67 (+22%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 82¢ 81¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 26 $200 −$108 -54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $117 +$43 +37%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 21 $153 −$131 -86%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 18 $63 +$116 +185%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $296 +$212 +72%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $193 +$57 +29%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$17 +83%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$37 +365%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 13 $435 −$11 -2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $102 +$47 +46%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$30 +291%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $23 +$13 +56%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $174 +$127 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $82 +$39 +48%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $510 +$197 +39%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $106 +$67 +64%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $312 −$300 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $65 −$62 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $203 +$55 +27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $155 −$150 -97%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June? Jun 03 $206 −$148 -72%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $409 −$298 -73%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $194 +$55 +28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $621 +$266 +43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $200 +$112 +56%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 31 $302 +$166 +55%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 31 $678 +$524 +77%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $1,114 +$628 +56%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? May 28 $226 +$123 +55%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 27 $820 +$600 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $52 +$64 +123%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $41 −$36 -87%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 26? May 26 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? May 26 $418 −$134 -32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 24 $509 +$320 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 27¢ $92 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 82¢ $202 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $146 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY No 68¢ $102 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $155 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY No 72¢ $102 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY No 72¢ $4 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY No 73¢ $74 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $197 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY No 69¢ $31 20h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 29¢ $31 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $59 26h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $101 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? SELL No 100¢ $97 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 45¢ $51 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? SELL No 99¢ $64 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 58¢ $68 7d
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY No 71¢ $102 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 96¢ $179 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY No 72¢ $15 7d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 12¢ $18 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 33¢ $52 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 28¢ $11 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 53¢ $207 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 63¢ $103 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 63¢ $103 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 64¢ $101 11d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 57¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,236.41 · official $1,236.41 (match) · 236 history records