Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:27:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fa8…9f06 politics 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 675d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%4W / 86L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$16
other 26% −$4
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 90 -2.8% -12.1% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

675d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses4 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage675d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $56 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $56 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $57 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $57 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $57 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $57 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 12 $57 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 10 $57 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $57 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 24 $55 $0 +0%
Will Jackson Arnold win the Heisman Trophy? Jan 01 $0 $0 +0%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 25 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jayden Daniels win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Southampton be relegated? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Benedict Mathurin win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Rabby airdrop in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
GPT-5 not announced in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 -0%
Will Drake London be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tyreek Hill be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Brock Purdy win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 21 $0 $0 -4%
Will FDP win the most seats in the next German election? Dec 21 $0 $0 -0%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 21 $0 $0 -4%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kyler Murray be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Dec 10 $0 $0 -3%
Will USC win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Jaguars win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Texas A&M win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 26 $0 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 20h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $56 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $56 8d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $56 18d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $56 18d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 28d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 28d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 38d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 38d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 42d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 43d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 52d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 52d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 70d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 70d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 75d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 76d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 88d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 88d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 97d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 98d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 99d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 100d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 102d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 102d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $57 105d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $57 105d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 107d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 195 history records