Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2F 0x2fa3…0b0c crypto 109 markets active 5d ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,099 (-12%) realized −$1,099 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%50W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$268
14 days−$1,179
30 days−$1,842
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$757
sports 26% −$285
other 6% −$485
finance 2% +$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +135.0% +112.7% 50% 43% -31.6%
≤30d 105 +11.0% +0.4% 46% 42% -29.8%
≤90d 107 +12.8% +2.1% 47% 43% -23.4%
all 107 +12.8% +2.1% 47% 43% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 43% -23.4%
10% -7.7% 42% -30.8%
15% -16.6% 39% -37.5%
20% -24.8% 32% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$75 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,099
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses50 / 57
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage27d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 107 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $70 −$31 -44%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $25 +$20 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $81 −$79 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $199 −$163 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $257 −$192 -75%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $51 +$28 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $80 +$69 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$51 +99%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? Jun 11 $63 +$5 +7%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 10? Jun 11 $123 +$177 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 08 $192 −$192 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$13 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 07 $102 +$39 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 07 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8AM ET Jun 07 $248 −$240 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 07 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 07 $47 +$19 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 07 $12 +$136 +1159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 07 $103 +$108 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 07 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 07 $78 −$76 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 07 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 05 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 03 $208 −$200 -96%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $173 −$170 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 03 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 03 $155 +$110 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $83 +$58 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12PM ET Jun 03 $104 −$27 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 03 $104 +$88 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 03 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin above 67,400 on June 3, 7AM ET? Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 03 $154 +$91 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY 25¢ $26 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06- BUY 7¢ $10 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 8¢ $39 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $81 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $42 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $33 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 3¢ $65 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $199 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 40¢ $79 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $148 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $80 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $31 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 25¢ $51 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 12¢ $106 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $42 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $53 6d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? SELL Yes 69¢ $68 6d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 8 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $44 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 15¢ $28 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 291 history records