Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:38:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2f9e…c96b
weather · 399 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$389 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$370 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42
Realized−$370
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses133 / 248
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions18
Markets (closed)381 / 399
History coverage6d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day562.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 18 History 381 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$370
14 days−$370
30 days−$370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 25¢ $2 $15 +$12 (+527%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 34¢ $3 $9 +$7 (+245%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Yes 29¢ 69¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+140%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $24 +$26 +108%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 +$22 +560%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$35 +566%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$40 +637%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 +$47 +1694%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $13 +$39 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $18 +$30 +161%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $96 −$96 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$8 +348%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$31 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$4 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$26 +487%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 −$15 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 −$6 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 75% −$156
weather 17% −$122
world 4% −$120
politics 2% −$49
sports 1% +$52
other 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 17m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 44m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 44m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 56m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 381 +2.6% -7.2% 35% 30% -12.2%
≤30d 381 +2.6% -7.2% 35% 30% -12.2%
≤90d 381 +2.6% -7.2% 35% 30% -12.2%
all 381 +2.6% -7.2% 35% 30% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover562.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 30% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 27% -20.6%
15% -24.2% 24% -28.3%
20% -31.6% 20% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.69 · official $41.70 (match) · 3500 history records