Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f9a…9ffe crypto 98 markets active 18h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-12%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate33%32W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -4.3% -13.4% 20% 0% -13.2%
≤30d 20 -9.9% -18.4% 15% 5% -18.8%
≤90d 20 -9.9% -18.4% 15% 5% -18.8%
all 98 -2.3% -11.6% 33% 15% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 15% -20.7%
10% -20.0% 7% -28.3%
15% -27.8% 4% -35.2%
20% -34.8% 3% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses32 / 66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage182d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 22 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 22 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 12 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 12 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 12 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 12 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 12 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 11 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 11 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 11 $1 +$4 +302%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 11 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 11 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 11 $13 −$10 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 11 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 10 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 10 $3 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 10 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 10 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 09 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 09 $3 +$6 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 06 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 06 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 03 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 02 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 02 $3 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Feb 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 02 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 02 $6 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 346 history records