Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:15:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f99…9546 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$786 (+12%) realized +$786 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate88%38W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$840
tech 20% −$51
other 13% +$3
crypto 10% +$2
world 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 18 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 43 -7.9% -16.7% 88% 2% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 2% +1.8%
10% -24.7% 2% -7.9%
15% -32.0% 2% -16.8%
20% -38.6% 2% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$278 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$786
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses38 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage218d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $160 $160 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $151 +$1 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of th Jun 18 $60 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $7.00? Jun 18 $99 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $60? Jun 16 $160 $0 +0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $160 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 18 above $40? May 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 18 above $60? May 18 $60 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 11 above $8.00? May 17 $160 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 12 $150 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th May 09 $150 +$2 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 02 $30 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $120 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 Week of April 20 2026? Apr 27 $88 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 13 above $170? Apr 22 $120 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 6 above $145? Apr 13 $126 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$150 on the final day of trading of the w Apr 08 $150 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 23 above $2.00? Apr 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 23 above $150? Apr 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$155 on the final day of trading of the w Mar 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the Mar 21 $56 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 9 above $2.00? Mar 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $155? Mar 12 $150 $0 +0%
Will the US strike ≥5 countries in February 2026? Mar 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $60 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 23 above $165? Mar 05 $85 +$1 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 27 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 22? Feb 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Slovenia record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 16 above $40? Feb 22 $56 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 04 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 7AM ET Feb 04 $110 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: December Feb 01 $1 $0 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $5 $0 +2%
Israel strikes Iran by January 9, 2026? Feb 01 $15 $0 +3%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Feb 01 $50 +$1 +1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Florida International vs. UTSA Roadrunners Jan 01 $2 $0 +4%
Pistons vs. Jazz Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Oilers Dec 27 $1 $0 +2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 09 $47 +$3 +6%
Hornets vs. Pacers Nov 21 $1,840 +$2,160 +117%
Pistons vs. Hawks Nov 18 $1,320 −$1,320 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $160 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $151 2d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $7.00? SELL No 100¢ $14 5d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $7.00? SELL No 100¢ $85 6d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $60 8d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $7.00? BUY No 100¢ $99 8d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $60? BUY Yes 100¢ $160 22d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $160 29d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 18 above $40? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 33d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 18 above $40? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 36d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 18 above $60? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 36d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 18 above $40? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 37d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 18 above $40? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 37d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 18 above $60? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 38d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 18 above $40? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 38d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 11 above $8.00? BUY No 100¢ $160 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 45d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 99¢ $150 53d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $120 57d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 Week of April 20 2026? BUY No 100¢ $88 63d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 13 above $170? BUY Yes 100¢ $120 69d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr BUY No 99¢ $30 76d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 6 above $145? BUY Yes 100¢ $126 77d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$150 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $150 83d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 23 above $150? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 89d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 23 above $2.00? BUY Yes 100¢ $56 92d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$155 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $50 99d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 100¢ $56 101d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 9 above $2.00? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.92 · official $159.92 (match) · 108 history records