Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:29:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f99…e0d5 other 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$105 (+2%) realized +$49 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate17%14W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$406now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$317
7 days−$576
14 days−$576
30 days−$576
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$93
world 15% +$254
crypto 5% −$156
sports 4% −$22
finance 4% −$185
politics 2% +$90
culture 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -22.3% -29.7% 14% 12% -24.1%
≤30d 73 -22.3% -29.7% 14% 12% -24.1%
≤90d 73 -22.3% -29.7% 14% 12% -24.1%
all 83 +11.5% +0.9% 17% 14% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 14% -13.2%
10% -8.8% 13% -21.5%
15% -17.6% 13% -29.1%
20% -25.7% 11% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$27 · ×4.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$406
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses14 / 69
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions9
Markets (closed)83 / 92
History coverage126d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $200 $238 +$38 (+19%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+25%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $35 $40 +$5 (+14%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $25 $35 +$10 (+40%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+60%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $154 −$150 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $27 +$220 +822%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$145 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$115 +1116%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $128 −$101 -78%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$51 -50%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$124 +241%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $123 −$31 -26%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 −$317 -63%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $507 +$222 +44%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $25 −$7 -29%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 +$79 +1529%
Trump out as President by March 31? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Scream 7" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US strike Yemen next? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $85-$90 in March? Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $15 −$4 -28%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $208 −$8 -4%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Cookie" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
U.S. Congress member out over Epstein files by April 30? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 3¢ $154 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 67¢ $246 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $27 6h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 7h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $51 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $150 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $20 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $405.61 · official $421.85 · 320 history records