Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:17:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2F 0x2f93…eb20 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,495 (+23%) realized +$1,217 · open +$278
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$596per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$811now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$67
14 days−$67
30 days+$722
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,153
finance 3% −$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +50.9% +36.5% 50% 50% -10.9%
≤30d 10 +29.9% +17.6% 50% 50% +1.4%
≤90d 10 +29.9% +17.6% 50% 50% +1.4%
all 10 +29.9% +17.6% 50% 50% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.6% 50% +1.4%
10% +6.3% 50% -8.3%
15% -4.0% 50% -17.2%
20% -13.4% 50% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$581 vs −$436 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$811
Realized+$1,217
Unrealized+$278
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage25d
Avg bet$596
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Bakio: Paul Inchauspe vs Oscar Weightman Oscar Weightman 32¢ 48¢ $534 $811 +$278 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp Jun 27 $1,266 −$723 -57%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 27 $530 +$739 +139%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal Jun 27 $208 +$323 +156%
ITF Brussels: Max Hans Rehberg vs Samuele Pieri Jun 26 $677 −$665 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $1,313 −$639 -49%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $417 +$898 +216%
Will Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 03 $104 −$53 -51%
Will Macy's (M) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 03 $104 −$100 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $1,091 +$697 +64%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Fonseca Jun 02 $300 +$245 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Bakio: Paul Inchauspe vs Oscar Weightman BUY Oscar Weightman 32¢ $545 1h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp SELL Sandro Kopp 18¢ $543 1h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 40¢ $1,266 2h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 100¢ $1,268 2h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 41¢ $530 2h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal SELL Sumit Nagal 99¢ $531 2h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 38¢ $208 4h
ITF Brussels: Max Hans Rehberg vs Samuele Pieri BUY Samuele Pieri 41¢ $677 24h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Fabian Marozsan 22¢ $674 24h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Fabian Marozsan 41¢ $1,313 26h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Zizou Bergs 100¢ $1,315 26h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 31¢ $417 27h
Will Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) beat quarterly earnings? SELL No 12¢ $51 24d
Will Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 23¢ $104 24d
Will Macy's (M) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 18¢ $104 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 57¢ $546 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 64¢ $545 24d
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Fonseca SELL Mensik 100¢ $545 24d
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Fonseca BUY Mensik 54¢ $300 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $811.49 · official $811.49 (match) · 20 history records