Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2f92…1be8
sports · 10 markets active 2h ago
7.0score
+$197 +87%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$197 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized+$197
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage39d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 0 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$145
7 days+$171
14 days+$180
30 days+$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Under 25¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Canada $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Korea Republic $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $36 +$100 +280%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $14 +$33 +229%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 +$25 +62%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$26 +254%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $30 +$19 +63%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premie May 20 $70 +$17 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 82% +$172
other 18% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $136 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $15 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $20 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada $2 8h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada $10 8h
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) BUY Korea Republic $2 24h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 15¢ $44 25h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic $6 25h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic $6 25h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic $4 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 27¢ $66 25h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic $2 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 26h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks $36 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $5 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $5 4d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $49 13d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $30 13d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $10 13d
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premie BUY Yes 80¢ $69 35d
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premie BUY Yes 80¢ $1 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +75.1% +58.4% 57% 57% +124.4%
≤30d 10 +51.3% +36.9% 60% 60% +69.3%
≤90d 10 +51.3% +36.9% 60% 60% +69.3%
all 10 +51.3% +36.9% 60% 60% +69.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.9% 60% +69.3%
10% +23.8% 60% +53.1%
15% +11.8% 50% +38.3%
20% +0.9% 50% +24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records