trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 86¢ | 84¢ | $15 | $14 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $101 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 11 | $54 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 07 | $46 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $25 | $0 | -0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 06 | $88 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 05 | $45 | +$1 | +3% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 04 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? | Jun 26 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 19 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian | Apr 20 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 20 | $1 | $0 | -13% |
| Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City | Apr 19 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 19 | $11 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? | Mar 15 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -0.0% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 11% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 11% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 19 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 32% | 0% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.4% | 0% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -18.1% | 0% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -26.0% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -33.2% | 0% | -33.1% |