Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2f8d…a92a sports 331 markets active 11h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,825 (+5%) realized +$1,823 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%159W / 171L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$463est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$337
7 days−$777
14 days−$257
30 days+$668
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,425
other 1% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -19.4% -27.1% 43% 43% -33.0%
≤30d 116 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 50% -6.4%
≤90d 330 +1.7% -8.0% 48% 40% -5.8%
all 330 +1.7% -8.0% 48% 40% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 40% -5.8%
10% -16.8% 39% -14.8%
15% -24.8% 39% -23.0%
20% -32.2% 39% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$82 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$1,823
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses159 / 171
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$463
Open positions1
Markets (closed)330 / 331
History coverage87d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 51¢ 64¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $8 +$7 +83%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $69 +$51 +73%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $7 +$8 +105%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 15 $208 −$208 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 15 $187 −$187 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $8 +$7 +90%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $8 +$7 +86%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $8 +$7 +83%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $8 +$7 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $8 +$7 +86%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $195 +$205 +105%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $191 −$191 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $199 −$199 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $191 −$191 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $199 +$201 +101%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $8 +$7 +90%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $8 +$7 +90%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $8 +$7 +83%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $211 +$149 +70%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $8 +$7 +83%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $167 −$167 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $203 −$203 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $195 −$195 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $219 +$141 +65%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $165 −$165 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $8 +$7 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $187 +$213 +114%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $57 +$63 +109%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $62 −$62 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $62 +$58 +93%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $8 +$7 +86%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $68 +$52 +76%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $70 −$70 -100%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $62 −$62 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 57¢ $69 11h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $8 11h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $7 12h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 46¢ $7 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $7 13h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $187 41h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 53¢ $8 42h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $8 42h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 51¢ $8 43h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $8 43h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $208 43h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $8 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 53¢ $8 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $7 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $199 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $195 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 53¢ $8 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $8 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 54¢ $8 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 45¢ $7 3d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $8 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $199 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $191 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 54¢ $8 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $191 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 58¢ $211 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $8 4d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 48¢ $195 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $8 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.68 · official $9.68 (match) · 1051 history records