Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2F 0x2f8d…cf69 sports 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,336 (-31%) realized −$1,150 · open −$186
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%24W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$94
14 days−$94
30 days−$420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$330
other 23% −$287
culture 7% −$291
crypto 4% −$170
politics 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +6.2% -3.9% 31% 29% -12.4%
≤30d 56 -2.8% -12.0% 29% 27% -21.1%
≤90d 68 +6.8% -3.4% 35% 32% -15.9%
all 68 +6.8% -3.4% 35% 32% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 32% -15.9%
10% -12.6% 31% -24.0%
15% -21.1% 31% -31.3%
20% -28.8% 28% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$50 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$414
Realized−$1,150
Unrealized−$186
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses24 / 44
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions5
Markets (closed)68 / 73
History coverage41d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 46¢ $200 $155 −$45 (-22%)
Norway leading at halftime? Yes 61¢ 46¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 41¢ 28¢ $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 24¢ $100 $64 −$36 (-36%)
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 41¢ 21¢ $100 $51 −$49 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $195 +$368 +188%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $204 +$421 +206%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 +$3 +3%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 +$101 +99%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $169 −$167 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $71 +$98 +137%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $48 +$23 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$48 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$19 -37%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$71 -70%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$40 +982%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $102 +$114 +112%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $71 +$75 +105%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $26 +$249 +970%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 +$44 +216%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$3 -7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $25 +$27 +107%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 +$44 +216%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $25 +$14 +54%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $6 +$5 +89%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 28m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $202 28m
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 33m
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 34m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $102 34m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 55¢ $104 1h
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $202 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $195 4h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $101 5h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 5h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 5h
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 5h
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 5h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 5h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 5h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 59¢ $169 19h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $169 19h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $71 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $72 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $48 21h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $51 21h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $31 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 12¢ $32 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 18¢ $51 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $30 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $30 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.25 · official $419.13 · 112 history records