Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:09:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2F 0x2f8d…4d22 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$67
other 37% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +44.4% +30.7% 40% 40% +51.5%
≤30d 5 +44.4% +30.7% 40% 40% +51.5%
≤90d 5 +44.4% +30.7% 40% 40% +51.5%
all 5 +44.4% +30.7% 40% 40% +51.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.7% 40% +51.5%
10% +18.2% 40% +37.0%
15% +6.7% 40% +23.8%
20% -3.7% 40% +11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$3 · ×13.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.9 per $1 lost it wins $8.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage5d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $40 +$74 +185%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $33 −$2 -5%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $23 −$7 -28%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $114 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 8¢ $31 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $40 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 8¢ $33 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 35¢ $17 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY 22¢ $1 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY 22¢ $1 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY 22¢ $1 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $23 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 81¢ $1 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 82¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records