Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:34:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2F 0x2f87…baa6 world 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% +$1
politics 27% +$1
other 23% $0
sports 17% +$1
tech 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 11 +1.0% -8.6% 45% 9% -9.0%
all 26 -2.7% -12.0% 46% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 4% -9.1%
10% -20.4% 0% -17.8%
15% -28.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.44 per $1 lost it wins $3.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage458d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $20 −$1 -5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $49 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $84 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $75 +$2 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $48 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Mar 20 $1 $0 +11%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 18 $181 +$1 +0%
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 18 $172 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 16 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 16 $121 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Dec 12 $12 +$1 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 26 $14 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Mar 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $14 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 15 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $22 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $14 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $36 8h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $16 12h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 23¢ $17 14h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 25h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $25 35h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $25 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $45 42h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $12 43h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $33 43h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $10 45h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $24 45h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $32 45h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $8 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $36 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $43 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $48 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $48 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $1 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $35 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.30 · official $5.30 (match) · 87 history records