Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:30:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f85…634a other 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$14
14 days−$25
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$18
politics 25% −$11
sports 18% −$8
crypto 11% −$6
finance 6% −$10
world 4% −$4
culture 4% −$11
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.7% -10.1% 4% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 67 -0.8% -10.2% 7% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 116 -0.6% -10.1% 9% 0% -9.9%
all 130 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 116
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage98d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 91¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $34 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $253 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $94 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 13 $59 −$2 -3%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $93 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $775 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $119 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $57 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $96 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $59 −$1 -1%
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 10 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $106 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 07 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 06 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $56 −$2 -3%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $50 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $55 $0 +0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $152 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 03 $59 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $64 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $176 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $197 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $89 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $247 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $98 $0 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 27 $52 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $44 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $34 7h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $50 8h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $51 12h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $42 12h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $42 19h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $46 20h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $47 26h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $54 27h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $55 35h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $58 35h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $58 41h
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $40 42h
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $40 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $47 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 92¢ $57 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $59 2d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 2d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 95¢ $38 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $37 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $37 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 3d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $42 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.56 · official $43.56 (match) · 447 history records