Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:49:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2F 0x2f85…bb5f other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$115 (+72%) realized +$115 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +79% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip
Net edge+62%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$39
14 days+$120
30 days+$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$101
other 39% +$28
crypto 13% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+62.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +39.2% +26.0% 67% 58% +23.8%
≤30d 16 +79.2% +62.2% 62% 56% +70.1%
≤90d 16 +79.2% +62.2% 62% 56% +70.1%
all 16 +79.2% +62.2% 62% 56% +70.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +62.2% 56% +70.1%
10% +46.6% 50% +53.8%
15% +32.5% 50% +39.0%
20% +19.5% 31% +25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +88% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +79% · $-wt +88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +133% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$7 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.67 per $1 lost it wins $3.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage12d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $20 +$8 +40%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $10 +$19 +188%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 27 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $10 +$5 +50%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 +$5 +46%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 +$23 +442%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$90 +874%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Jun 20 $5 +$6 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records