Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f82…659e crypto 228 markets active 4d ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (615 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$349 (-5%) realized −$349 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%110W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day615.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$591
tech 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (615 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 +6.9% -3.3% 54% 53% -14.6%
≤30d 228 -4.4% -13.5% 48% 46% -17.0%
≤90d 228 -4.4% -13.5% 48% 46% -17.0%
all 228 -4.4% -13.5% 48% 46% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover615.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 46% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 44% -25.0%
15% -29.3% 41% -32.2%
20% -36.2% 36% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$23 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$349
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses110 / 118
Open positions0
Markets (closed)228 / 228
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day615.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 228 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $104 +$85 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$17 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $129 +$22 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$19 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $90 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $70 +$60 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $126 +$65 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $78 +$32 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $97 +$33 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $57 +$98 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $27 +$17 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$12 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $194 −$194 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$27 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $78 +$48 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $157 +$41 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $109 +$41 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$8 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $194 −$189 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $39 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$6 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$8 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $23 +$32 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $27 +$18 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records