Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f81…c4ba crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+3%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day38.7pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$34
other 9% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.4% -10.8% 55% 36% -12.7%
≤30d 11 -1.4% -10.8% 55% 36% -12.7%
≤90d 11 -1.4% -10.8% 55% 36% -12.7%
all 11 -1.4% -10.8% 55% 36% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 36% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 36% -21.1%
15% -27.1% 27% -28.7%
20% -34.3% 9% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$20 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day38.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $145 −$85 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $67 +$39 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $55 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$9 -25%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 +$16 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.22 · official $14.22 (match) · 49 history records