Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:53:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2f80…47ef
sports · 35 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$1,836 +94%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,835 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Net worth$84
Realized+$1,835
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage132d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 50¢ 52¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+3%)
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Luisina Giovannini vs Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales 51¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) Baluska 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Piros vs. Forejtek: Match O/U 21.5 Under 50¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 Under 48¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays No 50¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Charaeva vs. Korpatsch: Match O/U 21.5 Under 50¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi Arnaldi 53¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) Tien 52¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 Over 47¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 51¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Bolelli/Vavassori 50¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Under 51¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 Under 51¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
ITF Litija: Ziga Sesko vs Theo Papamalamis Theo Papamalamis 50¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 47¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 Under 53¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5 Under 49¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +93%
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +93%
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 09 $5 +$4 +90%
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 08 $4 +$4 +105%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 06 $7 +$6 +93%
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 04 $4 −$4 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 04 $3 +$3 +96%
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 03 $4 −$4 -99%
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Montedio Yamagata vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $4 +$4 +96%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $4 +$4 +96%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) May 30 $4 −$4 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Luca Van Assche vs. Patrick Kypson: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 27 $4 $0 -2%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 May 27 $5 +$5 +101%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 May 27 $6 +$6 +95%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Luisina Giovannini vs Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De May 27 $4 $0 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi May 26 $4 −$4 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. Júbilo Iwata: O/U 2.5 May 23 $4 +$4 +101%
ITF Litija: Ziga Sesko vs Theo Papamalamis May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Tam May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Charaeva vs. Korpatsch: Match O/U 21.5 May 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Piros vs. Forejtek: Match O/U 21.5 May 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Pacers vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5 Mar 21 $55 −$55 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-6.5) Mar 21 $27 +$28 +104%
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals Mar 20 $17 +$10 +56%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Feb 03 $1,650 +$1,861 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% +$1,836
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $5 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 50¢ $5 24h
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 47h
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 2d
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) BUY Baluska 50¢ $0 3d
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) BUY Baluska 50¢ $3 3d
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 4d
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 48¢ $4 5d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY No 51¢ $7 8d
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 9d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori BUY Bolelli/Vavassori 50¢ $4 10d
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 53¢ $4 11d
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 48¢ $4 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 51¢ $0 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 13d
Montedio Yamagata vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $4 14d
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) BUY Tien 52¢ $4 14d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 51¢ $4 16d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 47¢ $4 16d
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Luisina Giovannini vs Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De BUY Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales 51¢ $1 18d
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Luisina Giovannini vs Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De BUY Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales 51¢ $3 18d
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi BUY Arnaldi 53¢ $4 18d
Luca Van Assche vs. Patrick Kypson: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 50¢ $4 19d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 51¢ $4 21d
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. Júbilo Iwata: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $4 22d
ITF Litija: Ziga Sesko vs Theo Papamalamis BUY Theo Papamalamis 50¢ $1 24d
ITF Litija: Ziga Sesko vs Theo Papamalamis BUY Theo Papamalamis 50¢ $3 24d
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 25d
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 25d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +76.2% +59.5% 80% 80% +62.9%
≤30d 26 -5.5% -14.5% 42% 42% -6.5%
≤90d 31 -9.2% -17.8% 42% 42% -20.0%
all 32 -5.4% -14.4% 44% 44% +79.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 44% +79.3%
10% -22.6% 44% +62.2%
15% -30.0% 44% +46.5%
20% -36.9% 44% +32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.25 · official $84.25 (match) · 89 history records