Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2f7d…0fa8
other · 80 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$85 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$82 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$157
Realized−$82
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions42
Markets (closed)38 / 80
History coverage33d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%
Chart Positions 42 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$78
14 days−$82
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 78¢ 77¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 39¢ 39¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+45%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $13 +$4 (+41%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $14 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? No 90¢ 90¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$4 (-75%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos LG Twins 51¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+27%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $53 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $59 −$1 -1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of May 11 2026? Jun 13 $0 −$1 -194%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $23 −$44 -196%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? Jun 13 $12 −$23 -189%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$22 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 −$4 -30%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $16 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $79 +$30 +38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $81 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $40 −$5 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $11 +$1 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $12 $0 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$3 -21%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $17 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $7 $0 -2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $27 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $17 −$1 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $19 +$3 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $18 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $6 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $11 $0 +3%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 06 $15 $0 -3%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $17 +$3 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $11 −$2 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $19 $0 +3%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 06 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 05 $18 +$10 +54%
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 05 $15 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 04 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $22 −$14 -64%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $25 −$2 -6%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $0 $0 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% −$10
world 32% +$21
crypto 14% −$34
sports 8% −$74
politics 7% +$10
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 92¢ $22 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $11 1h
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 39¢ $19 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $20 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 91¢ $22 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $0 18h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $15 18h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 89¢ $0 21h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 89¢ $19 21h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 65¢ $20 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $14 24h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $7 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 90¢ $19 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $13 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 72¢ $22 25h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 1¢ $22 25h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $15 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 57¢ $9 37h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $16 39h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 78¢ $12 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $27 45h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 86¢ $20 47h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 80¢ $12 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 89¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 35¢ $23 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $16 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL No 92¢ $12 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? SELL No 91¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -19.5% -27.2% 27% 8% -16.1%
≤30d 38 -14.7% -22.8% 32% 13% -15.0%
≤90d 38 -14.7% -22.8% 32% 13% -15.0%
all 38 -14.7% -22.8% 32% 13% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 13% -15.0%
10% -30.2% 5% -23.2%
15% -37.0% 5% -30.6%
20% -43.1% 3% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.93 · official $156.51 (match) · 243 history records