Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:17:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2F 0x2f7a…66fb other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$456per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$5
other 29% −$3
culture 17% −$3
crypto 8% $0
world 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,011) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage86d
Avg bet$456
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $65 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,340 −$2 -0%
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? Jun 22 $1,218 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 22 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 18 $71 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? Apr 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Apr 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Apr 16 $67 $0 -0%
Will Madison Keys win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Apr 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 16 $998 $0 +0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,012 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $1,015 $0 +0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 14 $1,011 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $1,008 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $969 −$1 -0%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Apr 05 $126 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $75 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Apr 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $152 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $28 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? Mar 28 $88 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 28 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $65 57m
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,338 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,295 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? SELL No 100¢ $213 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 2h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $868 2h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $325 2h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 2h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $1,195 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 100¢ $71 65d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? SELL No 99¢ $35 65d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $43 65d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 99¢ $17 65d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $28 65d
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 65d
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 65d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 99¢ $18 65d
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 65d
Will Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $67 67d
Will Madison Keys win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL No 99¢ $28 67d
Will Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $25 67d
Will Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $15 67d
Will Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $27 67d
Will Madison Keys win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 99¢ $17 67d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $769 67d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $242 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records