Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:54:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2f7a…6f03 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$69 (-1%) realized −$78 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$1,597now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$216
7 days+$307
14 days+$307
30 days+$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$416
crypto 3% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +11.1% +0.5% 100% 50% +1.9%
≤30d 5 -11.1% -19.6% 80% 40% +1.0%
≤90d 7 -15.1% -23.2% 71% 43% +0.5%
all 16 -8.8% -17.5% 62% 44% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 44% -1.1%
10% -25.4% 31% -10.6%
15% -32.6% 25% -19.2%
20% -39.2% 12% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$33 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$1,597
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage226d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $1,588 $1,597 +$9 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,379 +$216 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $390 +$1 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $363 +$27 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $300 +$63 +21%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 10AM ET Mar 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 16 $26 +$16 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 16 $25 +$1 +2%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 31 $5 +$6 +114%
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch? Nov 28 $500 +$137 +27%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 25 $332 −$77 -23%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 25 $171 +$62 +36%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Nov 21 $50 −$28 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,595 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,595 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,379 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 84¢ $391 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $390 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 98¢ $391 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $363 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $363 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $300 5d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $19 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $15 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $41 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $42 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $11 177d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $11 178d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY No 46¢ $5 184d
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 93¢ $637 211d
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 73¢ $500 212d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? SELL Yes 34¢ $255 214d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY Yes 41¢ $233 214d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $233 214d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 46¢ $19 218d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 218d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? SELL Yes 6¢ $22 218d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 80¢ $150 225d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 225d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,597.25 · official $1,597.25 (match) · 37 history records