Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2F 0x2f77…0b4a sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,176 (+31%) realized +$2,176 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$583per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,997
other 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +22.0% +10.4% 73% 64% +16.2%
≤30d 11 +22.0% +10.4% 73% 64% +16.2%
≤90d 11 +22.0% +10.4% 73% 64% +16.2%
all 11 +22.0% +10.4% 73% 64% +16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.4% 64% +16.2%
10% -0.2% 45% +5.1%
15% -9.8% 45% -5.1%
20% -18.7% 36% -14.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$253 vs −$12 · ×20.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×53.97 per $1 lost it wins $53.97
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$2,176
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$583
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics Los Angeles Dodgers 52¢ 50¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $35 +$24 +70%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 29 $2,420 +$489 +20%
Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Jun 29 $21 +$33 +160%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 29 $1,760 +$680 +39%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 29 $26 +$19 +74%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $21 −$2 -9%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $1,614 +$156 +10%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $1,001 +$614 +61%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY Jun 26 $51 +$9 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 52¢ $17 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 8h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $2,909 12h
Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $53 12h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 81¢ $2,420 14h
Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Team Liquid 37¢ $21 14h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) SELL T1 100¢ $2,440 14h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) BUY T1 70¢ $1,760 17h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox SELL New York Yankees 47¢ $19 20h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $21 29h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ $26 29h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $26 33h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $1,770 36h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $1,614 38h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) SELL T1 100¢ $1,615 38h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 60¢ $2 3d
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 60¢ $1,000 3d
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY SELL DK 100¢ $60 3d
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY BUY DK 83¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.51 · official $16.51 (match) · 23 history records