Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:29:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2F 0x2f77…9da4 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,467 (+41%) realized +$6,510 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$1,578per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$1,957now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$6,181
sports 15% +$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 62% +32.1%
≤30d 8 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 62% +32.1%
≤90d 8 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 62% +32.1%
all 8 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 62% +32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 62% +32.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 50% +19.5%
15% -30.3% 50% +8.0%
20% -37.1% 12% -2.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +46% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,325 vs −$100 · ×13.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×22.08 per $1 lost it wins $22.08
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,957
Realized+$6,510
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1,578
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $1,000 $984 −$16 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1,000 $972 −$28 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,010 +$505 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,004 +$172 +17%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $303 +$145 +48%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,317 +$1,229 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $9,799 +$4,575 +47%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,025 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,020 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 19h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 28h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 67¢ $303 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,004 28h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 32h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $707 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,334 41h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $7,039 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $405 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,012 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,956.60 · official $1,956.60 (match) · 28 history records